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On Friday, top Republican strategist Scott Reed described early voting turnouts for Democrats a “warning flare” for the GOP. In recent weeks, Democrats seem to be leading Republicans significantly in early voting. Critically, the number of newly registered and infrequent voters turning up to vote early suggests a highly energized Democratic voting bloc that hasn’t been seen in decades.
“Some Republicans are stuck in a model that we always run up the score on Election Day to make up the difference,” Reed noted. “I think running an election in a super-polarized electorate, you want to win early voting. Let’s go. Let’s stop talking and making excuses.”
Widespread Democratic voter turnout at early voting sites is far from what GOP strategists expected for this election. President Donald Trump’s primary focus in the lead up to the election was on mail-in voting, and his concerns that absentee ballots would be falsified in a widespread effort to undermine the vote.
Even as mail-in voting has been more popular this year than in 2016, early in-person voting efforts have turned in a huge gulf between Republicans and Democrats.
However, early voting returns alone aren’t forecasts of what could happen in the election. Just because Democrats are seeing a huge turnout early doesn’t mean that a surge of Republican votes can’t come in between now and election day.
As Reed pointed out, historically, Republicans make up the difference on November 3. Things are far from over yet: until the last ballots are tallied, nothing is certain. A lot can happen between now and election day.
For the president to win reelection, there are several critical swing states he needs to secure. Florida is among those states, where early voting is showing a tight race. Mail-in voting is overwhelmingly going in favor of the Democratic challenger, Joe Biden. However, the state’s rice is expected to be decided by a very slim margin, making every vote in the region count.
Likewise, a string of northern swing states will also be critical for Trump’s campaign. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, all three of which Trump carried by less than a percentage point in 2016, will be massive wins if the president can lock them down.
A likely trouble spot is Arizona, where Democratic turnout in early voting is some 74 percent higher in 2020 than in 2016. Many are comparing Arizona’s current political climate to 2008, when the state went overwhelming for Barrack Obama.
