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Since the January 6th Capitol riot in Washington D.C., voter registration has shown a significant withdrawal from the Republican Party.
Election officials across the country have received calls and reports from tens of thousands of registered Republicans switching their party affiliations. The numbers are staggering. Over 33,000 registered Republicans in California left the party after the Capitol riot. In Arizona and Pennsylvania over 10,000 registered Republicans changed their registration in the last month.
According to a recent analysis by The New York Times, nearly 140,000 Republicans had left the party in 25 states. The data showed a significant departure from the party since the 2020 presidential election.
California had a big jump in numbers after Jan. 6th. There were 1,020 Republican changes before Jan. 5th and 3,243 on Jan. 7th. In Arizona, between Jan. 1st & 5th, 233 Republicans changed their affiliation. The next week there were 3,317 changes. The majority of these Republicans are changing their status to “unaffiliated.”
Voter registration tends to shift after presidential elections. In some cases, voters will switch their affiliation toward the winner of the election’s party. Or they might update their party affiliation to a new current preference. Voter registration changes can also be viewed when states update their rolls by removing inactive voters, people who have left the state, and deceased voters.
Since the beginning of January around 79,000 voters have left the Democratic Party. The violence at the Capitol on Jan. 6th and the unpopular former President Donald Trump, make for an unsettling time in American politics. A lot of Republicans have rejected the pro-Trump insurrectionists who rioted on Jan. 6th.
Including 10 Republican House members who voted to impeach President Trump. Many Republicans are also supporting President Biden’s new stimulus package. Big policy changes are rarely supported by the opposing party of a new president.
Michael P. McDonald, a professor of political science at the University of Florida, says, “Since this is such a highly unusual activity, it probably is indicative of a larger undercurrent that’s happening, where there are other people who are likewise thinking that they no longer feel like they’re part of the Republican Party, but they just haven’t contacted election officials to tell them that they might change their party registration,” adding, “So this is probably a tip of an iceberg.”
A good portion of Republican officials say that they have seen a substantial number of new registrations before the 2020 presidential election. Stating that many times in the past the party was able to bounce back quickly.
Josh Holms, Senator Mitch McConnel’s top political advisor, says, “You never want to lose registrations at any point, and clearly the January scene at the Capitol exacerbated already considerable issues Republicans are having with the center of the electorate,” Today’s receding support really pales in comparison to the challenges of a decade ago, however, when Republicans went from absolute irrelevance to a House majority within 18 months.”
He added, “If Republicans can reunite behind basic conservative principles and stand up to the liberal overreach of the Biden administration, things will change a lot quicker than people think.”
Only time will tell.
