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President Donald Trump, once the favorite to win reelection, is now facing a bizarre turn of events. The novel coronavirus pandemic, paired with the ensuing economic downturn, has put a damper on the president’s arguments that he’s been good for the economy.
A series of scandals throughout the year, including interviews with Bob Woodward that indicated Trump downplayed the severity of the pandemic, have further rocked the administration.
Even as conservatives continue supporting the president, they’re beginning to realize that things are a bit grim for his reelection. While Trump is overwhelmingly popular among the Republican party, it’s no secret that he’s unpopular nationally.
This is shown in stark numbers when one considers the dozens of national polls from the summer and recent weeks that show Joe Biden leading the incumbent by some ten percentage points. What can Trump do now to win?
In 2016, Trump turned things upside-down in Washington with his upset win over Hillary Clinton. He was buoyed by a pair of twists that many pundits simply didn’t foresee.
First, the sudden resurfacing of a cache of emails thought deleted by Hillary Clinton made national news in the weeks before the election. This had the effect of demoralizing much of Clinton’s base, and energizing the Republican voters in swing states that Trump simply needed to secure.
The other unforeseen upset came by way of polling errors. In 2016, many notable pollsters failed to properly weigh their responses for white voters without a college education. This demographic went for Trump overwhelmingly in 2016, and helped him secure his narrow lead in the Electoral College.
As much as conservatives don’t like to think about it, Trump was rather close to losing the election. He only carried Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania by less than a percentage point each, and without them he would have not won the election.
In truth, he lost the popular vote by some three million ballots. How can Trump repeat such an upset in a very different political environment, and as an incumbent?
The president’s best shot at reelection is that another late reveal comes along to expose something related to Joe Biden’s political history. Short of such a dramatic reveal, the arrival of a vaccine for the coronavirus, or a sizable stimulus check for the majority of Americans, could consolidate the conservative vote and help give Trump the momentum he needs. Of course, nothing is set in stone until the votes are cast. However, for now, it looks like the president faces a tough road to reelection.
