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Donald Trump isn’t winning in national polls. His opponent, Joe Biden, leads him in polling in several battleground states. However, this might not be as dire as some journalists would have you believe.
The point of many of these stories is to simply demoralize Republican voters into not showing up on Election Day. However, Trump isn’t out of the race yet. Here are a few reasons to not give up hope based on polling numbers.
As we saw in 2016, polls can simply be wrong. It’s possible that any political scientist could make errors in polling. Sampling errors, while uncommon, can happen.
Generally, good surveys will seek to minimize errors that see some demographics overrepresented. In 2016, many polls overlooked a major demographic that voted for Trump: white people with little to no college education.
Something similar could be happening this year. Trump supporters might be responding to surveys less often than Biden supporters.
Survey errors alone might not be in play, though: it’s possible that a majority of people do support Biden over Trump. However, this is also not as big a concern as it might seem.
Votes aren’t counted until they’re officially cast. Responding to a survey is not casting a ballot. And, historically, Republicans turn up at the polls in higher numbers than Democrats.
There are a number of reasons for this. Taking time off work, getting a ride to the polls, and having the resources to register to vote can be difficult for poorer people and minorities, who are more likely to vote for Democrats.
Additionally, voting districts favor Republicans. Wide swaths of the country are rural, meaning that they’re more likely to go for Republicans in general elections.
Democrats, meanwhile, tend to be clustered in urban areas, meaning they are more numerous but less spread out than Republican voters. This gives Republicans a major edge in the Electoral College, where numbers of states matter, not popular vote numbers.
In an emergency situation, the Trump Administration could take the extreme step of circumventing the traditional method of selecting electors. If it becomes clear that Democrats are trying to steal the election with falsified mail-in ballots, state legislatures could appoint their own electors.
Thus, Republican-held states could have their electors simply cast a vote for Donald Trump, even if the erroneous mail-in results give Biden the edge.
Of course, this method would be extremely controversial. Many would accuse the Trump administration of trying to undermine democracy. As such, this extreme solution would likely only be implemented if it was clear that an attempt to steal the election was made, which seems highly unlikely.
